Consider this: Evironmentalists in Africa pressure papermakers not to plant trees, says South African paper-industry executive Eugene Van As.
"In my part of the world, we are called destroyers of fine, pristine grasslands," Van As told the 1996 meeting of the Technical Association of the Pulp and Paper Industry (TAPPI) in New Orleans. "You cut them down, we plant them--and we're both bad guys!"
Whatever papermakers do, it's feared that economically available fiber will be increasingly scarce in the future. The shortage will be driven not only by environmental pressures, but also an anticipated explosion in demand for paper from Asia. Projections are that demand will double in parts of the Far East in the next 10 years.
"An increase in the demand in India means a very significant increase in the overall demand for fiber," said Van As, executive chairman of Sappi Ltd. in Johannesburg.
It is not yet clear where alternative fibers such as kenaf or straw fit. Today in China and India, more than half the paper contains nonwood fiber. Van As uses sugarcane to make some of his products--but he's not betting his company on it.
"Nonwood fibers...are very susceptible to climactic change," he said. "We have had five years of drought, so we are very conscious of what's happening with the availability of nonwood fibers. You can suddenly lose half your crop."
Arnold M. Nemirow, president and CEO of Bowater Inc., predicted Eastern Europe would come to the forefront in the next few years as a low-cost supplier of fiber. He also sang the praises of new fiber sources in Latin America, which continue to attract investment.
"If the grass is not greener over there, at least the trees are growing taller sooner," Nemirow said.
Paper-industry "futurists" at the TAPPI meeting said they didn't foresee alternative fibers as critical. Nevertheless, papermakers explore them, and most recently, seaweed is getting a lot of attention--this according to Mary Cesar, vice president of fiber resources for Jaakko Pöyry Consulting in Tarrytown, N.Y. It's not clear yet how much fiber can be harvested from the oceans, but "the neat thing about seaweed is it's not an annual crop," Cesar said. "The more you cut, the more it grows."
Andrew Bowser is a New Orleans-based writer. E-mail, AndyNOLA@aol.com; phone, (504) 897-4026.
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