- The key prediction I made last year was in the world of databases. I surmised that not only would there be databases that would "encompass the entire newspaper," but also simpler systems that would track elements like ads and pages.
- I made some wild predictions about new front-ends. Seems I got caught up in the promise of using intranet technologies to replace much of the stuff that's hard to develop for collaborative environments such as newsrooms and classified ad-order entry.
- Automated page-layout tools. I was convinced last year at this time that publishers would see the attraction of allowing the system to do the "easy pages." I guess I was the only one.
- Microsoft Word macros. This one didn't even entrance me too much, but a couple of people I trust in the industry said this would be the Next Big Thing (the notion being that with so many editorial and classified front-ends based on Word, the market for Word macros would explode).
Predictions Revisited
by David M. Cole
"Everything that can be invented has been invented."
--Charles
H. Duell, commissioner of the U.S. Office of Patents, 1899.
The prediction business is perilous. After going out on a limb, give yourself a few months and see how wrong you can be.
Last year at this time--in this space--I made some fearless predictions about what you would see at NEXPO'97, which was held June 21-24 in New Orleans. Now that I have come back from NEXPO'97, I can tell you what I got wrong with those predictions:
Well, I was way off the mark there.
Despite the fact that newspapers today need extensive database facilities to handle virtually every aspect of creating, manufacturing and distributing the product, they have not communicated that fact well enough to suppliers. So, no products.
At NEXPO'97 there were element-tracking databases being shown, but they weren't much more advanced than those shown at NEXPO'96.
And databases that provide newspaper managers with a snapshot picture of the entire operation? The one company that offered something like that at NEXPO'96 didn't even attend NEXPO'97.
Further, I predicted there would be a lot of argument about the relative merits of object-oriented databases (which handle things like pictures, graphics and ads well) versus relational databases (which don't handle pictures, graphics and ads so well). Some of the problem here was upstream--the suppliers of object-oriented databases have yet to make them simple enough for value-added resellers (our suppliers) to understand, and the suppliers of relational databases have developed a good set of tricks to make many of the object-oriented arguments moot.
Unfortunately, no suppliers were as enthusiastic as I.
Think about it: Instead of proprietary software running on an expensive computer in front of editors, reporters or classified workers, you have a browser (either Netscape Navigator or Microsoft Internet Explorer--your choice) running on a "thin client" or "network computer," either of which are destined to cost less than half of what a regular PC goes for.
And implementing cross-platform software (i.e.: running on a Macintosh) is a breeze, as both the major browser suppliers seem committed to create products that run on a variety of computing systems.
Unfortunately, the company that had indicated to me an interest in building such an intranet animal has now changed its mind, but it says it might be willing to assist another supplier in building an intranet-based editorial front-end.
As for an intranet-based classified front-end, there is a group out there working on it, but who knows when they'll be finished?
We did see some interesting work on display at NEXPO regarding the use of Lotus Notes, either in conjunction with an existing editorial front-end (CoDesCo of Germany showed Lotus integrated with Quark Publishing System) or as a rudimentary editorial system (in the IBM booth--IBM now owns Lotus).
So, essentially, I was wrong with this one too.
Actually, Cybergraphic Inc. of Burlington, Mass., and Melbourne, Australia, has a product it calls NAILS that does exactly what I'm talking about.
We may have to wait for a couple of other pagination suppliers to lose accounts to Cybergraphic because of this feature before anyone else gets really interested in it.
Maybe there haven't been enough front-ends sold recently, or maybe people want to write those macros in-house. But I was really, really wrong on this one.
So, I was zero for four between NEXPO'96 and NEXPO'97. Being somewhat stubborn, I think that I'll stick with (almost) the same predictions for NEXPO'98--the big things shown in Orlando next year will be databases, front-ends based on intranet technologies and automated page-layout tools.
But I'll skip that one on Microsoft Word macros. I think all the Microsoft Word macros that can be invented have been invented.
Cole is a San Francisco-based newspaper consultant and editor of The Cole Papers, a monthly newsletter on technology, journalism and publishing. E-mail, dmc@colegroup.com; phone, (415) 673-2424; fax, (415) 673-2449. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily TechNews or NAA.