The Oracle At NEXPO
by David M. Cole
Perhaps
because it wasn’t a difficult prediction, it actually came true. Over
the last four years, the editors of TechNews have kindly allowed me to
annually shoot myself in the foot by making predictions in the issue after
NEXPO® as to what would be the hot new technologies shown at
the next NEXPO.
In 1996, I predicted that four things would be hot in 1997: ubiquitous databases, intranet-based front-end systems, automated page-layout tools and Microsoft Word macros that would customize an application and be sold in the same way QuarkXTensions are.
At 1997’s NEXPO, it was quickly apparent that I had more than a little fog in my crystal ball.
So in 1997’s TechNews, I admitted my myopia but persisted in saying that databases, intranet front-end systems and automated page-layout tools would rule (it was clear even to me that the macros thing wasn’t going to fly).
At 1998’s NEXPO, I was again proven wrong. So in the TechNews column, I finally abandoned those three and zeroed in on one thing: I said that Adobe Systems Inc.’s new page-layout product, code-named K2, would be a hit in ’99.
Finally, I got one right (well, almost—I predicted it would be called PageMaker Pro; the company decided to call it InDesign).
Whether it was seen at the Adobe booth or at the exhibits of a variety of other companies (Cybergraphic Systems Inc. of Burlington, Mass.; Digital Technology International of Springville, Utah; Managing Editor Inc. of Jenkintown, Pa.; or System Integrators Inc. of Sacramento, Calif.), InDesign had them clogging the aisles.
The new page-layout program—which I predicted would be released in January but probably won’t even be out by the time you read this—has a variety of compelling features, but the most important is that Adobe has embraced the third-party providers of industry-specific software. The professional page-layout leader, Quark Inc. of Denver, has traditionally been less cooperative. (This just in: Quark has signed a deal with System Integrators that allows for more cooperation than ever before. I wonder where it got that idea.)
Though nothing based on InDesign is finished yet, the DT implementation is certainly further along than any others. (Cybergraphic, for example, had its new parent company, Geac Computer Corp. Ltd. of Markham, Ontario, sign a contract with Adobe during the show.) DT has bought into the InDesign model completely: Virtually all its software modules are based on InDesign.
Interestingly, DT has used InDesign to inch us toward two of those four predictions I made back in ’96. Because InDesign was designed with databases in mind, the new DT modules all have relational-database access that is somewhat like what I was talking about when I used the phrase “ubiquitous databases.” Further, DT has implemented a story-building tool in its PageSpeed product that is really “automated pagination.”
With two suppliers finally providing distinctly different interpretations of “automated pagination,” I’d like to announce that my 1996 prediction has finally come true. Cybergraphic’s LayoutExpert product (formerly known as NAILS) and DT’s PageSpeed tools finally have moved us from electronic paste-up to true pagination. Now all we have to do is to get about a dozen other suppliers on the bandwagon, and we’ll be all set.
So, what about NEXPO 2000? There’s a safe prediction and a couple of ones that are more out there; let’s try the latter ones first:
- What’s been stalling computer-to-plate? The cost of the plate material. I predict that by next year, one or more plate suppliers will have CTP material that matches the current price of traditional plates.
- More blurring between print-specific and online-specific publishing systems. Taking the lead from Atex Media Solutions’ new Omnex front-end, other suppliers will develop front-end systems that can handle multiple data types (motion video and audio, in addition to text and still images). The line between a print-publishing system and an online-publishing system will become less distinct.
- Can I have my 1996-1997 three back? I’d like to reinstate the possibility suppliers will recognize that enterprise-wide databases, intranet-based front-ends and automated page-layout tools will finally arrive. After seeing my concept of a “database of databases” surface in both Atex’s Omnex and DT’s new products, I hold out valiant hope that other suppliers will see the wisdom of the idea. Same thing goes for automated page layout. And we are definitely seeing movement toward intranet-based front-ends (thin-client technology, if you will) in the work that System Integrators, NewsEngin and Dalai have all done with Lotus Notes. In other words, I’m hoping to see more of the same.
And the easy prediction? Everything we saw demoed at NEXPO’99 will work at NEXPO 2000.