Strolling Down Visionary Lane
by David M. Cole
Attempting to predict the future is fraught with peril (see this space, July/August 1997, ’98, ’99). But with the dawn of a new century in front of us, I am frequently asked, "Where the heck is the newspaper business going?"
My guesses–and these are nothing but guesses–center on the notion that technology will play a major role in newspapers’ future and that newspaper technologists–that’s you guys–will play a more prominent role in guiding and leading newspapers of the future.
Let’s take a stroll down Visionary Lane to see what might be in store for us in the next few years:
New media. There will be two key enabling technologies here: The first will be bandwidth on demand; the second, wireless bandwidth.
Bandwidth on demand–that is, the ability to haul down megabytes and megabytes of content at will, with little or no latency–is a requirement for new media to blossom.
The specter of full-motion video, high-quality audio and other whiz-bang features is still on the horizon. But we know that if the telephone companies and/or cable companies can solve this problem, we will have massive changes in the newspaper business.
Today only a small handful of papers gather video for use on the World Wide Web. In the near future (five years?), virtually every paper will equip its photographers with not only still-video, but also motion-video cameras. Photographers will capture a variety of images, and those images will be used in a variety of ways (sometimes in print, sometimes online, sometimes in other, as yet unenvisioned, media).
The other side of the bandwidth coin is wireless bandwidth. Not being tethered to a wire to surf the Web will spur the development of flat-panel devices (today known as "electronic books"). The ability to roam (anywhere in the house; anywhere in the office; on the bus and, yes, in the bathroom) will mean the new-media barrier will be finally broken. This is probably eight-to-10 years out.
In both cases, it’s the bandwidth that will influence the other technologies–bandwidth will drive the process.
Editorial. Along with learning how to capture full-motion video and digital audio, newsroom personnel will also be required to build new niche products for print as well as new media.
What will these new products be? Hard to say, but some will be demographically oriented, like special sections for seniors, teens and ethnic groups, as well as geographically oriented, like the zones we’ve come to know and love.
The only way these new responsibilities can be handled is with sophisticated new editorial systems capable of leveraging database technology and handling a variety of data types. When will we see such systems? In some aspects, they’re here already. But give it five years before ubiquity.
Advertising. Much the same as editorial, the ad department will have to learn how to deal with a variety of new data types as well as a plethora of new products. And the technologies will be the same as well: extensive databases that will allow these data and products to be developed, built and tracked. I think that advertising systems this sophisticated may take as long as a decade to arrive.
Pre-press and press. At what point does pre-press go away? Pretty soon, especially when the technology lurking on the horizon comes to the fore: direct-to-press.
We’re all familiar with computer-to-plate: Rather than making film and then burning a plate, CTP etches the digital image directly on the printing plate. The next natural step is to have the image made on a reusable plate already mounted on the press.
The technology is in its infancy, but we can expect that within the next 25 years, newspapers will be able to quickly make those niche publications because there will be no need to hang plates or tweak registration (imagine, immediate start-up in register).
Post-press. In the packaging department, we’ll be handling so much stuff that, as my mother used to say, it’ll make your head spin.
All those niche products, direct mail and, finally, address-specific delivery.
The sophisticated systems in editorial, advertising and the pressroom will allow us to build a product for a specific household. We’ll be able to give our advertisers the demographic or geographic slice they want, and we’ll be able to give our readers the information they’ve told us they want.
The next 25 years of newspapering will be exciting and I’m glad I’ll be along for the ride.
Of course, as comedian Dennis Miller says, I could be wrong.
Cole is a San Francisco-based newspaper consultant and editor of The Cole Papers, a monthly newsletter on technology, journalism and publishing. E-mail, dmc@colegroup.com; phone, (650) 994-2100; fax, (650) 994-2108. The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessarily TechNews or NAA.